Weblog KPAG Kosmidis & Partner – die deutschsprachige Anwaltskanzlei in Griechenland

Growing Opposition to Continued Greek Austerity Measures

Publiziert am 15.Februar.2014 von Abraam Kosmidis

Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras began his six month tenure of the EU Presidency in January with a speech criticising the continued imposition of austerity measures. This has meant four years of harsh spending cuts and a tight fiscal policy, which he said the country could no longer tolerate. His is now a leading voice in the growing opposition against renewed austerity measures, which have been imposed on states in economic crisis across the EU. Greece has felt the sharp end of the EU currency and debt crisis and has already received €250 billion in bailout funds. For many leading politicians and the majority of the public alike, enough is enough.

For the Presidential handover ceremony in Athens, trouble was expected. Over 5000 police were drafted in to ensure peace was maintained and there would be no disruption. This did not stop many Greeks coming onto the streets of the city to let visiting EU officials know what they thought. Neither left nor right wing party leaders attended, but the point was made. Outside the ceremony, demonstrators and police clashed and crowds were forced back with tear gas; inside, the new EU President presented an equally clear message that Greece was exhausted by austerity and that although the government’s economic reforms were having an effect, there should now be a new agenda to stimulate growth and create jobs.

Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras said: ‘Greece does not want to have any more fiscal conditionality. It is out of the question because it is already too tough.’ He spoke for many. Years of depression, mass unemployment and wage cuts that have left even those lucky enough to have a job to struggle on around a third of their former incomes, have left the country exhausted. With the news coming at the beginning of February of an unexpectedly large primary surplus, the Finance Minister has criticised the Troika’s earlier pessimistic forecasts, which had expected a €3 billion shortfall in the 2014 budget. He said that if he had agreed to the lenders’ demands for greater austerity measures, the Greek economy would now be facing ruination. Greece has worked hard to eradicate the structural problems in the economy and the huge current account deficit that had been the two major causes of the crisis, but admitted that ‘the other side of fiscal consolidation is a decline in living standards’ and that it would take some time ‘from the moment that figures improve until the moment that people will see some money in their pockets.’

Priorities and difficulties

On 15 January, Prime Minister Samaras outlined Greece’s priorities for the next six months. Measures to promote economic growth and improved social cohesion will be set in motion, and solutions to the serious problem of youth unemployment must be a part of these. The first signs of economic recovery may be visible, but one of the aims of any set of recovery measures must be the prevention of a repetition of the crisis. The Prime Minister said that the crisis and the response to it had proved that the EU can be effective, and he recognised the solidarity shown by the people of Europe. Looking towards the May 2014 European and municipal elections, he said he wanted ‘to make sure that citizens won’t vote with the bitter taste of crisis in their mouths.’ This is a serious concern, as recent polls have shown Prime Minister Samaras’ New Democracy government falling behind the opposition Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), and that it may even be in danger of fighting for second place behind the neo-fascist Golden Dawn party.

The New Democracy government’s shrinking majority in parliament has made passing some of the tough economic measures demanded by the Troika’s bailout conditions increasingly difficult, which Finance Minister Stournaras has criticised as being unrealistic: ‘The majority is very slim, so we have to  be very careful. There are things that can be done and things that cannot be done.’ Official discussions of a third bailout package can start only after the May elections; but if unofficial discussions are able to show any positive signs before then, Samaras may be able to gain some ground on the SYRIZA coalition, which rejects completely the terms of the previous bailout agreements. SYRIZA’s leader, Alexis Tsipras has said he would renege on the agreement, withholding at least 60% of the debt, which would create a further crisis that could drive Greece out of the eurozone and leave it bankrupt. However, New Democracy itself has said that it cannot repay the €250 million owed to the banks, while setting aside a bill that would provide debt relief for households that have fallen into difficulties only because of the government’s austerity measures – the cuts to wages and pensions, and tax increases. This apparent insensitivity cancels out any goodwill created by any new people-friendly agenda or optimism about recovery, and does them no good in the polls.

The focus of resentment

For many of those protesters in Athens, the EU is the main architect of the social and humanitarian crisis in Greece, and German chancellor Angela Merkel as its dominant figure. Economic recovery in itself does not prompt people who have suffered years of hardship to forget their resentment against those who have managed the crisis, however successful they might be. This is a familiar scenario whether a given leader is popular or despised: the electorate will complain during the hard times, but then get rid of them after they’ve delivered success. As the US financier George Soros has said of the current situation in Europe: ‘The acute phase of the financial crisis is now over. Future crises will be political in origin.’ He sees the crisis as having crucially altered the relationship between the countries of the eurozone, from a ‘voluntary association of equal states’ to ‘a relationship between creditor and debtor countries that is neither voluntary nor equal.’ This is borne out by Chancellor Merkel’s popularity at home, where she has won a third term in office, and the increasing resentment felt towards Germany, and Merkel in particular, within the countries that have suffered the hardships of the EU bailout agreements. In an EU summit held last December, during the first week of Merkel’s new term, she found herself trying to push through a new policy for enforcing structural reform on eurozone economies against united opposition of all elected European leaders, including even her usual allies, and the plan was defeated.

Unpopularity is the price of power. Personalizing the crisis in this way may give a satisfying focus to people’s anger, and elected leaders may feel compelled to reflect this, but it is not necessarily wise politics if your focus is a better future for Europe. Merkel’s plan was seen as dictatorial, a view that was probably influenced by the power of her position. Structural reform is painful, as seen during the undoubtedly difficult years of the Greek bailout, but it has led to signs of recovery. If Merkel had been successful, the European Commission would have been empowered to police structural reforms, but it would also have partially subsidized them. Merkel’s view was that €3 billion spent on immediate changes was preferable to €10 billion spent after unnecessary delay. These changes may or may not have helped the Greek economic recovery, but it’s certain that without the support of the previous EU bailout agreements the country would be in a much worse economic position. Part of the fallout of the eurozone crisis has been the loosening of commitment to the EU and its principles by many people in the countries worse hit by the crisis – including their politicians.



Greece Set to Leave the Bailout Scheme as it Assumes the EU Presidency

Publiziert am 9.Januar.2014 von Abraam Kosmidis

On Monday 30 December 2013, the Greek Prime Minister, Antonis Samaras, announced that the country would leave the bailout programme in 2014. In a televised speech he stressed that with Greece assuming the EU stewardship this January, the coming months held the promise of renewed confidence after nearly four years of difficult austerity measures. Following Ireland’s withdrawal from the bailout programme earlier in December, this will be a major step on the road to recovery from the financial crisis that has gripped the eurozone since 2010. The Prime Minister said that in 2014 Greece would ‘venture out to the markets again [and] there will be no need for new loans and new bailout agreements.’

After receiving two aid packages that helped to reduce the nation’s debt in 2012 by €130 billion, during 2013 confidence grew amongst investors that the debt would be repaid, which resulted in a fall of interest rates on Greece’s 10-year bonds by about 8% compared to its peak figure of 30% at the height of the crisis. This meant that Greek government bonds became one of the most profitable assets during 2013, showing returns as high as 47%. However, some analysts doubt the assertion that Greece will need no further aid during 2014 as its international lenders have reached no agreement on a figure for the fiscal shortfall in the new annual budget, and officials from the financial troika comprised of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund have been pressing the Greek government to make further cutbacks.

Old problems, new solutions

In addition, the deflation in the economy, the so-called ‘internal devaluation’ of wage cuts, high unemployment and price cuts, is set to continue well into 2014. This may create difficulties for the Greek government: persistent internal economic problems combined with the inefficiency of the country’s public administration, its unpopular and problematic tax system and the pressures of the upcoming EU parliamentary elections in May 2014, could at least be distracting for the Greek EU presidency and at worst weaken its authority. Only a year ago, even Greece’s continued membership of the EU seemed in jeopardy. Four years after Greece’s dire economic situation helped to trigger Europe’s worst debt crisis for more than half a century, there are still doubts about whether it can stay the course.

Since Antonis Samaras became Prime Minister of the coalition government in 2012, the political scene has been dominated by widespread public anger over the harsh austerity measures that were a prerequisite for implementation of the international bailout programme. The government’s majority in parliament was reduced from its original twenty-six seats to only three in December 2013 after Samaras expelled the controversial former cabinet minister, Vyron Polydoras, from the conservative-Socialist coalition when he refused to support a revised tax law demanded by the country’s lenders.

This new legislation, which replaces the unpopular property tax attached to electricity bills, introduces a new broader based real estate tax, which also covers land holdings. Projected figures show that it will raise about €2.65 billion, which is €0.25 billion less than under the previous tax law and which the government plans to offset by cutting €200 million from its 2014 investment programme. The level of home ownership in Greece is amongst the highest in Europe, at 80% compared to the 70% EU average, so a large proportion of families’ wealth is tied up in property. In order to boost the stagnant market, under the new legislation property transfer tax is reduced from its previous 8-10% to 3%. Polydoras had argued that the new tax would be ‘heavy and unbearable.’ Although inspectors from the troika have agreed to the new tax, they have expressed concern that Greece may not be able to collect it efficiently. In defiance, the Greek parliament has extended the ban on home repossessions for a further year.

The Greek government has not always been in agreement with its international lenders over its austerity measures, particularly in this restriction on home repossessions. This is one of the main reasons why in December, for the third time, the troika interrupted an inspection visit to Greece and withheld the latest bailout payment of €4.9 billion. This does not put Greece in immediate financial difficulty as no large bond payments are due until May 2014. Anticipating an end to recession, the Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras is expecting to see growth in the economy by 0.6% in 2014, which would be a welcome recovery after the 25% drop during the past six years. He said that the new tax legislation would be the last austerity measure before the economy begins to turn around.

Taking centre stage

Greece’s taking over of the EU presidency, which gives it the ability to control policy, could be a major milestone in the rehabilitation of the country’s image as an economically and politically stable state. However, the population’s growing hostility to the EU and Germany in particular is one part of the crisis that refuses to go away. This is exemplified by the drive-by shooting that took place in December at the official Athens residence of Germany’s ambassador. Fortunately nobody was hurt. Greece’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Evangelos Venizelos quickly reacted, describing the attack as a ‘cowardly terrorist action’ aimed at tarnishing the country’s image abroad at the commencement of its EU presidency. He stressed that Greece stood alone in the EU as having made the fiscal adjustments worth €70 billion over three and a half years – equivalent to 35% of the country’s GDP – that had been necessary to combat the economic crisis. Venizelos has described the much stated irony of Greece’s ‘presiding over Germany’ as indicative of the collapse of the founding principle of equality amongst states within the EU. In the face of these initial problems, the Greek coalition government sees the six-month period of its EU presidency as a chance for Greece’s European credentials to be taken seriously, and for Greece to be seen as a country that is on the road to recovery.

There is always the worry that, despite its budget surplus, Greece may still miss its fiscal targets. There is still speculation about a new bailout, despite the Prime Minister’s assertion that Greece would be leaving the programme. Others also worry that Greece’s presidency will divide rather than unite Europe, that its often difficult relationship with the troika may overshadow its term of office and only strengthen the divide between north and south. Venizelos has expressed the opinion of many in Greece, that considering the government’s success in combating the country’s economic problems, the troika’s rescue programme could have been ‘more flexible and more clever.’

Priorities for Greece will be to stimulate economic growth and tackle its immigration and youth unemployment problems. Some members of parliament privately admit that with the government focussing on European affairs, it will allow Greece to enjoy an unofficial period of grace free of the necessity to implement more of the unpopular reforms that have polarised Greek opinion and weakened the coalition. The European parliamentary elections in May 2014 brings the prospect of much anti-EU sentiment being voiced in Greece, but Venizelos is determined that Greece, as ‘the laboratory of the crisis,’ should contribute positively towards the vital debate on Europe’s future.

 



The impact of the austerity measures on Greeks

Publiziert am 12.Dezember.2013 von Abraam Kosmidis

ppcbill_390_1311

Austerity measures under the terms of the international bailout have put increasing pressure on the Greek people. Cuts in services, salaries and pensions alongside higher taxes and a 59% rise in electricity prices since 2007 have ensured that many now face a hard winter with their electricity supply cut off because of non-payment of bills. The consensus is that the government went a step too far in 2011 when it added an emergency real estate tax to electricity bills rather than giving the task of collection to the beleaguered tax authority. This only forced more consumers to default on their electricity bills. With the number of unemployed now at 1.37 million, or 27% of the workforce, the number of disconnections in 2013 is set to surpass last year’s figure by between 5% and 6%, and between January and September the total disconnections was already at 257,002.

Years of austerity

This is just one of the hardships that have been inflicted on the country. Under pressure from international lenders, the Greek government has been seen as unfairly discriminating in their insistence on cutting wages and pensions to the poor and low paid while leaving the rich and the army of tax evaders comparatively untouched. The bailout funds secured last December were expected to end a long period of uncertainty over Greece’s future as part of the euro zone; after three years of austerity, people naturally hoped that this would also improve their own personal financial situation. The period of euphoria lasted all of two months. By February, tens of thousands of protesters had taken to the streets across the country with the sound of drums, whistles and cries of: ‘Robbers, robbers!’ A nationwide strike by the two biggest labour unions had shut schools, trapped ferries in their ports, and left hospitals to run on emergency staff only.

The aim was to test the will of the government in the face of growing anger. After only eight months in power, Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’s coalition government was determined to implement the reforms agreed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund. Ilias Iliopoulos, secretary general of ADEDY, the public sector union, made no bones about the protests: their intention was to ‘get rid of the bailout and those who take advantage of people and bring only misery.’ He added: ‘A social explosion is very near.’ Costas Panagopoulos, head of Alco Pollsters, said: ‘If these expectations are not satisfied by the summer, then whatever is left of the working class will respond with more protests.’ This is what has happened.

Restoring some balance

In 2012 the income of the poorest 10% in Greece had been reduced to half its 2009 figure and 37% were below the poverty line. With the growth of the Greece Solidarity Campaign and action against the closing of the state TV and radio stations, the furore over the Lagarde List with its implications for freedom of the press, privatisation and cuts to the health service, the seizing of state buildings and distribution of food and medicines to the needy, the problem of disconnection to the electricity supply had to be addressed. Relying on their own ingenuity, people began to illegally reconnect to the grid, and the sheer numbers of disconnections has created an ‘electrician’s movement’ – a loose group of professional electricians united by their dedication to restoring power supplies to those who cannot afford to pay their debts to the power company. They do this for free, considering the cutting of electric power from consumers to be immoral. Figures from the Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network (HEDNO) show that about 10% of Greek households have an illegally reconnected supply. Although their official position is that theft of electricity is dangerous and unfair to legitimate consumers, only 310 cases have been taken to court as the company wants to avoid prosecuting low-income families.

The price of electricity continued to rise – by an average of 12% in 2012 and a further 8.8% in January 2013. Under the bailout terms, further price rises for low-voltage electricity were scheduled for May, but costs to the Public Power Corporation (PPC), which is 51% government owned, were lower than forecasts so plans were dropped. However, by July the way was paved for a new deal on renewable energy sources with the Ministry of Environment Energy and Climate Change making cuts to the feed-in tariff on new photovoltaic installations of up to 45%, with plans to cut tariffs on existing photovoltaic installations by up to 10%. These cuts were initially offered to producers as voluntary, with the ministry promising that LAGIE, the Greek electricity market operator, would extend the length of purchase contracts, while the government would put pressure on banks to extend loans and cut interest rates. Although voluntary, it was expected that this deal would be pushed through by the ministry whatever the response from supplies, with the aim of establishing a viable sustainable energy market where the €436.1 million deficit of LAGIE’s Renewable Energy Sources fund is eliminated. An essential part of this new deal for power was the further increase of prices to electricity consumers imposed in July. While industrial consumers would pay less, domestic users were faced with a further 120% rise in prices. The Greek Regulatory Authority for Energy (RAE) saw this as essential to correcting the ‘significant structural distortions and weaknesses’ in the Greek energy market, while critics condemned it as the government again forcing the consumer to pay for their lack of planning.

Late promises

Despite the hardship of living without electricity, many people who have their supply cut off rely on candles for lighting and fires or braziers for heating. Recently this has resulted in three deaths from fire or carbon monoxide poisoning and the opposition has put the blame firmly on the government’s austerity policies. The government was quick to react with promises that it would restore power to households that cannot afford to pay. Environment Minister Yiannis Maniatis said: ‘We will not allow any of our fellow citizens to die of cold.’ A case-by-case review will be undertaken to assess who are genuinely unable to pay after municipal authorities have provided the PPC with lists of poor families in each area. With winter already here, the question has to be asked: is this just a matter of good intentions too late; or a case of politicians backed into an inescapable corner, and the appearance of good intentions is all that counts? What is certain is that the people still feel unfairly treated and more will die before the spring.



Ein Gleichnis zur Finanzkrise in Griechenland

Publiziert am 24.Juli.2012 von Abraam Kosmidis

Die Parabel von dem kranken Patienten – ein Gleichnis zur Finanzkrise in Griechenland.

Jetzt ist es wieder so weit. Griechenland soll nach dem erneuten Wunsch einiger Politiker wieder mal aus dem Euro heraus gedrängt werden. Es soll kein Geld mehr in ein „Fass ohne Boden“ fließen. So plausibel diese Ansicht klingen mag umso kurzsichtiger ist sie. Es wurde bereits viel zur Griechenland-Krise gesagt, deshalb wird das Thema hier jetzt einmal aus einer anderen Perspektive dargestellt.

Eine Epidemie nimmt ihren Lauf:

Ein Infekt verbreitet sich rasch von den USA nach Europa. Ein bereits schwer kranker Patient, wird infiziert. Er geht zum Arzt. Dort wird ihm zu seiner Genesung eine Medizin verschrieben. Die Diagnose und die verabreichte Medizin erweisen sich jedoch als falsch. Der Zustand des Patienten verschlimmert sich deshalb dramatisch. Jetzt sagt der Arzt, dass man dem Patienten nicht mehr helfen könne und dass nicht die falsch verschriebene Medizin, sondern der Patient selbst an der Verschlimmerung seines Zustandes schuld sei. Da man nichts mehr für ihn machen könne, solle er auf die Selbstheilungskräfte seines Organismus hoffen oder auf sein Ende warten. So, oder so ähnlich lässt sich die Situation kurz vor und nach Eintritt der Griechenland Krise in wenigen Worten beschreiben.
Gesamten Artikel lesen »